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Wednesday, August 29, 2007

Hot Forex News at 28 August 2007

Today GCI Forex said that the euro lost ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3615 level and was capped around the $1.3680 level. Technically, today’s intraday low was right around the 23.6% retracement of the move from $1.2865 to $1.3850. The Federal Reserve injected US$ 2.0 billion in temporary reserves through overnight repurchase agreements today. The common currency came off following comments from European Central Bank President Trichet who indicated the central bank could forego a rate hike next month if financial markets become volatile again. Most traders believe the ECB will lift its main refinancing rate by +25bps to 4.25% by the end of the year.

Data released in the U.S. today saw August consumer confidence fall to 105.0 while the Richmond Fed manufacturing index improved to +7 from +4 in July. Data released in the U.S. yesterday saw existing home sales deteriorate 0.2% in July with the supply of unsold single-family homes at a 9.2 months, the highest level since 1991. Traders are paying close attention to the release of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes that will be released later in the North American session.

Traders are interested in what the Fed discussed on 7 August about the subprime credit market glut. Fed Chairman Bernanke will speak this Friday at the annual Jackson Hole Fed symposium. In eurozone news, the German Ifo August business climate index receded to 105.8 from 106.4 in July, above expectations. Also, the EMU-13 M3 money supply expanded 11.7% y/y, up from 10.9 y/y in June – the highest level of expansion since at least August 1982. These data underscore the need for additional monetary tightening by the ECB. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3530 level.

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