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Sunday, December 14, 2008

Economic Growth Worsening In US

As the economic numbers are worsening in the US, the Federal Reserve might cut rates again in one the coming meetings. The US dollar, in the mean time, appears to be topping against major currencies.

Economic numbers are worsening in the United States, as consumes are contracting, housing has not found a bottom yet and unemployment is rising. So, in an effort to stop what appears to be landslide, the Federal Reserve could lower rates again in one of the coming meetings. In November, payrolls declined by 533,000, while October’s data was revised to 320,000 from 240,000 and September’s to 403,000 from 284,000.

Unemployment rose 0.2% month-on-months to 6.7%, from 6.5% in October which represents the highest level of the past 15 years. Like the previous months, job losses were broad based and only the government sector added new positions. In reality, the deep economic contraction is permeating various levels of the U.S. economy.

Factory orders, as an example, slumped 5.1% (-3.0% expected) in October, the worst down move of the past eight years, after sliding 3.1% in September. Demand for durable goods declined 6.9%, while non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, an indicator for capital spending, slid 5.0% after falling 3.4% in September. Since a few months, both the manufacturing and the service industries are in steep downtrend and more weakness is expected in the near future.

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